A Historic Shift in UK Politics: Why Reform UK won

By Isabel Gleave (Y12)

Two weeks ago, the 2026 UK local elections were held across Great Britain on Thursday, 7th May. In the aforementioned elections, Reform UK (a party formed in late 2018) achieved a sweeping and decisive victory, replacing Labour in many of its political heartlands in Northern England and South Wales. Reform UK secured 1,454 seats across Great Britain (Northern Ireland was not included in this election cycle), 34 of which were in the Senedd (Welsh) Parliament, and 17 in the Scottish Parliament. Reform UK is led by Nigel Farage, the man who championed Great Britain’s exit from the European Union (known within the zeitgeist as ‘Brexit’). This Brexit deal has mainly had a negative impact on Britain’s economy, hitting the GDP and decreasing foreign investment. So how did the man who spearheaded this campaign, widely criticised for its economic fallout, seize so many seats in the latest elections?

It is important to note that this was a local election, not a general election. Reform candidates who win chairs in the local elections hold leadership positions only in their local area. It does not mean that Reform UK is forming a government or that Nigel Farage is Prime Minister. However, these local elections are still significant as they can provide an accurate indication of the results of the next general election. One such example of this was when, in 1995, Labour secured a landslide victory in the local elections, which foretold the later victory of Tony Blair in 1997. Thus, the results of this election can help gauge the results of the next general election, which must be held by the 19th August, 2029.

Perhaps the greatest reason for this win is the general public’s sense of disillusionment with Labour and the Conservative Party. For decades, Labour and the Conservatives (‘Tories’) have operated within a duopoly of power, simply switching sides of the House of Commons every few general elections. In recent years, the general public has lost both faith and confidence in the government. In a recent YouGov survey, it was revealed that 69% of respondents did not trust the government to tell the truth (31% claimed they never trusted the government), and again in another survey, 69% of respondents disapproved of the government. Thus, Labour and Conservatives, as the two parties that have been at the forefront of this governmental system, are currently perceived as stagnant and untrustworthy by the public and are facing a crisis of reputation. As a result, political parties like Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, Green Party, etc., are experiencing a surge in popularity and support as they offer a supposed new outlook and alternative route to the old ways, which are now viewed as failing.

Moreover, this decrease in support for the traditional political parties of Great Britain (Labour and the Conservatives) means that the likelihood of a ‘younger’ party winning seats has increased. This is a result of England’s voting system (where Reform UK obtained most of their local council seats), which works on a ‘first past the post’ system. This is when a party does not need to secure a clear majority (50.1% of votes) but instead only needs to secure a higher percentage of votes than other parties. To illustrate:

	Vote percentage	Party Status
Party A	42%	Won
Party B	30%	Defeated
Party C	28%	Defeated

Even though 58% of the population voted against Party A, Party A still won as it secured more votes than either of the other parties individually. Hence, as Labour and the Conservatives lose support, their voters (who made up a majority) are spread between the remaining parties. So these newer parties need a lower percentage than previously required to prevail in such elections, allowing Reform UK to secure a lower percentage yet still triumph.

Nonetheless, Reform UK did manage to outstrip competition, so what is it about this party that makes it so appealing? One reason is that their policies appeal to the issues at the forefront of the minds of the British public. They have pushed anti-immigration policies and support the idea of beginning illegal-immigrant detention centres across the UK. Whether this would be effective or not is an entirely different matter, but they are appealing directly to the general public by feeding upon this distrust and almost scapegoating of immigrants and asylum seekers that is interspersed throughout Great Britain (as seen by the 2024 summer riots in the UK). Despite his prevalence in the media, Reform’s success cannot all be accredited to Nigel Farage, who only took over as leader of Reform UK in 2024, around 6 years following its founding (however, he did previously lead the UKIP party from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016). Farage can be credited, however, with the engagement of non-voters through his carefully curated portrayal as an ‘everyman’, epitomised in published photos taken with him brandishing a cigarette or drinking a pint. Not only this, but Reform has also received some disillusioned traditionally Conservative voters, as well as some voters who simply do not know where else to turn as a result of the failure of the current and prior governments (as discussed above).

Ultimately, Reform UK’s victory in the 2026 May local elections was a result of a combination of different factors. Benefitting from a shift away from the duopoly of the Conservatives and Labour, new voters as a result of this, and lower percentages needed for victory, Reform’s win highlights this dramatic and historic shift in British politics.